Wednesday, June 21, 2006

A letter to Thiru S Gurumurthy.

I had read your recent articles in the New Indian Express on the petrol price & on rupee valuation.

I fully agree with you. The thought on the appreciation of rupee against the dollar and other currencies has been lingering in my mind for several years. I have started blogging on this subject from 22/10/2005.


A series of blog on the subject : 22/10/2005. Forex Dilemma!! to 01/06/2006 Forex Dilemma 4 is available at http://moorthykmd.blogspot.com

India has always been looked at by the entire world for its intellectual and original thinking capabilities. Here we find that the rulers and policy makers are merely copying what the west and east are trying to do. India is unique in many ways and the western or eastern models are unlikely to work. Policies and methods need to designed with the situation in India.

Merely following the models of other weak nations in depreciating our currency does not work. The whole nation is suffering today because of the lack of vision and wisdom to see the welfare of the citizens.

Prices of Gold, metal like copper and aluminium, petroleum, real estate, stocks, etc etc are going up basically because the policy makers have failed to utilise the forex of 140 billion dollars.

We will continue to attract more outsourcing in menial work and body shopping than any respectable software development and exports. Today a employee in a bpo with bare minimum experience draws a salary of Rs 7,000 but that's what even managers carrying huge responsiblites in many small scale industries get. The cost equations are different. The ssi or sme has to work on rupee costing basically to cater to the pericing for indian consumer and indian taxation whereas the bpo is working on dollar revenues @ 46 times the rupee with ZERO tax. The contribution by the manager working for the sme is much more than what a bpo employee contributes. The intellectual capabilites are also different. The bpo employee would not get to even a fifth if he were to work in a sme. It is unlikely that he gets employed first. Most of the bpo employees are unemployable in other industries or businesses.

Todays unrealistic rise in real estate prices both for commercial and housing are as a result of Dollar investment in IT office space and non indian pay packets of the employees of IT companies.
People in Bangalore would be able to explain better. They are the worst sufferers. The rise in commercial space prices have made owning them by indian companies a dream. The rise in the housing space prices have resulted that only people with non indian salaries and income can afford with the support of large housing loans. An average indian can not even afford to dream of owning a flat or a house in the city.

Today in the farm sector near the cities, there are no farm hands to work even at high wages rendering farming activity loss making. More industrial estates are developed to the fancy of the foreign investor. Industrial estates should rather be developed to utilise waste lands and not by converting agricultural lands. You are reducing the agricultural land area of the nation gradually. You can build factories and buildings on any land but you cannot cultivate rice and wheat on any land.



Today's rulers and policy makers are neglecting the interests of 99.9 % of the population but are only keen on doling favours to the 0.01 % . They are yet to get freedom in their mindset. Naxalite menace, terrorism, suicide by farmers, under development of some regions etc are some of the results of the inappropriate policies. Immediate changes are essential. We the people are being punished for electing people not suitable for the offices they hold.

Dhakshina Moothy, K.M.

Wednesday, June 07, 2006

Laughing STOCK

When the BSE Sensex crashed and hit the index trigger, Our FM had advised the investors to stay in the market and continue to invest. That India growth is strong and nothing can happen in the downward way.

Last week he mentioned that the sensex is behaving (read sliding ) in line with the international markets.

What happens to those who had listened and taken his advice. They would have lost all that they would have earned in their life. They would have turned laughing Stock before their family and society.

FM's behaviour has been most irresponsible. It would be better for him to show restraint in his remarks to the media on financial matters concerning the nation. If he has taken credit for the rise of the index, will he resign taking resposnibility for the fall. He is trying to please whom?



Dhakshina Moorthy,K.M.

Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Forex Dilemma 4

The Rupee plunged to Rs 46.00 to USD 1.00


With USD 140 Billion in reserves it is shame that the rupee is not appreciating.


We are funding the US economy, its current account deficit with interest free, tenure free, liability free, committment free money while we borrow at 6 to 10% rate of interest. India cannot afford this charity. We ourselves are starving paying high interest. Interest rates have gone up by atlest 1.5 % during the last 6 months.



The mandarins of the north block should atleast wakeup now and intervene in the forex markets using RBI to bring the Rupee value to atleat to Rs 35.00 to a USD.



Dhakshina Moorthy, K.M.


Sunday, May 28, 2006

Rise and fall of BSE Sensex

People were overjoyed when the Bombay Stock exchange sensitive index of top companies listed or the SENSEX was climbing from 6000 points to 12000 points. There was dizzy activity. Every body were crediting the rise from finance minister to the stray dog that was littering on the dalal street pavement. Everybody was "factoring" the growth of India in the "valuations" giving rise to the sensex. Well!! Valuations are simply notional and are unreal. They are irrational and eccentric thought process than any application of scientific thinking. They are like a gambler's instinct. I merely see them as INFLATION. Our Finance minister states that inflation has been contained under 5%. But the index has inflated by 100%. Assets haven't doubled, profits have not multiplied - then where is the need for doubling or trebling of share values. Ridiculous. Now the finance minister has turned investment advisor to the citizens to continue investing in the stock market. He has nothing to lose. But the Citizens have already lost in crores.

Dhakshina Moorthy, K.M.

Thursday, December 08, 2005

Role of an Independent Director.


An Independent Director by virtue of his independence shall add value to the company by his contribution in terms of Good governance in complying with statutory regualtions, provide leadership for the company in the growth , inclucate and review ethical business practices and thinking, be responsible to the environment and society, and to uphold the interest of the shareholders.

Dhakshina Moorthy, K M

Microsoft Fraud on India.

Europe :- Microsoft was fined $612 million and ordered to come up with a version of Windows that doesn't include its media player under a penalty in Europe for monopolist trade practices.


USA :- Microsoft Pays IBM $775 Million to Settle Antitrust Claims. This is for the discriminatory pricing and overcharge claims that were highlighted in the findings in the U.S. antitrust case.


South Korea :- South Korea's antitrust watchdog fined Microsoft Corp. $32 million for alleged unfair business practices and ordered it to take corrective measures such as separating certain software from Windows and selling the software of competitors along with it.
"The Korea Fair Trade Commission found such tying practices liable because they constitute abuse of market dominant position and unfair trade practices under monopoly regulations and the Fair Trade Act," Kang Chul-kyu, the commission's chairman, told reporters.


World over Microsoft has been abusing its size and power to commit fraud (read : Unfair trade practice as mentioned) in its business. They undertake to seek as many new possible ways and means of conducting unethical business. The world over nations have declared Microsoft as bad business company.

Today, 08/12/2005 we see Bill Gates shaking hands with Indian Ministers and declaring USD 1.7 Billion investment in India during the next 4 years including some bit of donations to health programs. Lot of Applause from both the rulers and the media glorifying his action.

Little do they realise, that the said investment is by way of his own software including Operating systems, office suites, and others that don't cost anything to make a million copies. The so called investment is only notional and does not incur any real expenditure but for the copying charges.

Secondly Gates has fully understood the cheap source of manpower for writing his programmes is only from India in the future. He is planning to educate indians so that they will be useful to his company later. So Selfish as that.

More to come.

Dhakshina Moorthy, K M

Monday, December 05, 2005

Why buy SBI shares in the market instead of ICICI Bank public issue.

[1] As on Sept 2005 , the price to earning ratio or PE for State Bank of India's share is 9.80 and that of ICICI Bank is 18.20
The ICICI share market price is almost twice that of what it should have been compared to SBI earnings on earnings. The price should have been around Rs 290 per share and not Rs 544 per share trading now or the public issue price band of 505 - 550.
[2] The Price to book value ratio or PBV for SBI is 1.80 where as it is 2.90 for ICICI Bank. It is almost 40% overheated than SBI. The Share price should have been around 340 and not the dizzy 544.
It makes more sense to buy SBI shares even at the present levels of 910 per share than to buy ICICI public issue.
[3] What more , it is understood that some senior managers of ICICI Bank had even offloaded their holding even months before the public issue.
ICICI public issue could be a scam coverup.
Dhakshina Moorthy, K M

Thursday, December 01, 2005

What ICICI Bank is trying to do?

ICICI Bank's Public issue opened today 01/12/2005. There were applications only for 43% of the total value. Other issues recently completed book building with in couple of hours of their opening . Classic example being ONGC issue. ICICI is trading at Rs 540 today. The offer is 505 to 550. There is hardly any scope for any gain on opening up of new shares for sale. You can as well pick shares in the market at Rs 10 less . No bothering of any allotment or not. You get confirmed stock. This may well turn out to be a big bouncer in the market in a few weeks time. There is no incentive to apply for the public issue. Ridiculous. I will not be surprised if the prices slide to 400 levels in a years time.
By the way what is ICICI going to do with these funds. Just to bring in Tier I capital - to fulfill capital adequacy norms of RBI. Nothing more. Targeting to grow like State Bank of India is foolish. SBI took more than a century to what it is today. Its strengths are totally different. ICICI can never match SBI even after a 100 years.

Forex Dilemma - 3.

Today 01/12/2005, The aluminium prices have been increased by about Rs 6000 per tonne. Reason - to par with the global prices of aluminium. This will not affect the international buyer as he buys in US Dollar. But the effect is on the indian customer who has to shell out more because the USD is appreciating against the rupee. The prices of zinc, along with gold and silver have followed suit. The prices of metals and others are increasing not because of local cost influences but because of appreciating USD. Inflation is growing rapidly because of the increases. There is deafening silence among the authorities to control the depreciation of the rupee.

Friday, October 28, 2005

Forex Dilemma - 2

On Tuesday 25/10/2005 the RBI Governor stated that the Oil prices were putting pressure on prices and inflation is rising above 5%. Gold , Diesel are the major items in the inflation index of RBI. It is no surprise. The only way is in the rising of the Rupee. The inflation also could come down dramatically.

Saturday, October 22, 2005

Forex Dilemma!!

Forex Dilemma!!
As I go on record today, 22/10/2005 - India's forex reserves have crossed well over USD 143 Billion. Yet Indian Rupee is weakening against the US Dollar and hit a low of Rs 45.15 to one USD recently.

What's happening?
Why are those handling the Forex - Finance Ministry, RBI etc are keeping quiet?

It is a loss to the nation and its people. On one side you are funding the US with interest free dollar ( to the level of dollar reserves - guess USD 100 Billion) by way of holding reserves and on the other side you continue to borrow and or service interest for borrowings from the World Bank / IMF etc at rates as high as 7 percent. All this money by way of interest
is out of sheer hard work of the citizens of India. We are gifting the fruits of our labour to some nation who wants to bully India at every available opportunity. Be it Nuclear programme, Pakistan, Space programme , embargo on imports from India etc etc.

What use are so much Forex reserves when you can't utilise it and benefit India?
Dump as much forex in the market as required so as to buy a USD at Rs 35. You will see lots of people making big noises that our exports will be uncompetitive etc etc. I DISAGREE. Indian exports are largely import based. ie. Most exports are by way of value addition on imported raw materials and intermediatries. We have a huge import bill for OIL. To reduce the burden of
imports either we reduce the quantity of imports or value of imports. Quantity reduction is ruled out as of now. Value reduction is possible. Once the Rupee appreciates the import bill drops to that extent.Cheaper import means competitive exports leading to more exports in terms of volume and value terms in the future.

Dhakshina Moorthy, K.M.
22/10/2005.

Sunday, October 16, 2005

Starting today 16/10/2005

I have started my posting today.

Dhakshina Moorthy, K.M.

about me
http://chennai.sancharnet.in/dax