Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Forex Dilemma 10.

Read this.
Re at new 9-yr high of 41.63/$
Agencies / Mumbai April 23, 2007 11:00 Hrs.

Credit Policy: Re zooms to 41.17/$
Press Trust of India / Mumbai April 24, 2007

.... and now.
I just remembered a nursery rhyme,
1 - 2 buckle my shoe .....
9 - 10 a big fat hen.
Just that the big fat hen called the Indian Rupee has started laying golden eggs all of a sudden., or everybody have started valuing the eggs to gold.

now 1 Eur = Re 56.48
1 UK Pound = Re 83.31

Indian Rupee has not seen substantial gains against the Euro or the UK Pound. Even in 2006 the Euro was close to 52 and UKP close to 79.

All the hue and cry that the Indian merchandise exports will collapse is all nonsense. The situation now is that the appreciation is more an after thought of the fall of the USD against Euro and UK Pound. The real appreciation of the Rupee is yet to be witnessed. USD should be traded at 38 rupees to reach the last year levels of Euro and pound.

Indian exporters should demand better prices for what they export. Not meekly succumb to the orders at ridiculous prices. If they quote china, then let them go to china for procurement. It is high time Indian exporters moved up the value chain and stop exporting raw materials and low value merchandise. Indian exporters are not exporting the surplus capacity but exporting the very best. For example cashew nuts of the best quality and size are not available in the domestic market even for a high price but exported. This should stop. the rise in the rupee will see a natural consequence of diversion of this sale to the domestic market. There is huge demand for many merchandise in the domestic market that are being exported. When the exporters are exporting with meager margins, the rise of the rupee is a good effect on the low margin exports and only high margin , high value exports would continue despite the rise in the value of the rupee. There will be a correction in the salary levels of the info-tech industry consequently effecting in the other industries.

Dhakshina Moorthy, K.M.



Monday, April 09, 2007

Forex Dilemma 9

Good Show!! Good Show!!

Read this.
******
Stronger Re has an upside

India Inc would have gained Rs 7,813 cr if the currency had appreciated at the start of last fiscal

PRADIP KUMAR DEY in Financial Express.
Posted online: Tuesday, April 10, 2007 at 0015 hours IST
*******
.... and now.

The rupee had yesterday ended at 42.92.

People have started realising only now that for the Indian conditions the nation stands to gain on the appreciation of the rupee. We should the appreciation in terms of the situation in India and not merely reproduce what world bank recommends or some economist some where studied some banana republic and comes to the conclusion that the depreciating currency would help. India is a land of intellectuals and independent thinkers. It is just that the decision makers in power should apply their mind and not merely drum beat what some body in the US says about our economy. It is our economy not theirs.

You may call it luck, fate, destiny or act of nature., it does not matter. The Indian Rupee is gaining strength, breaking long term price barriers. It looks like the elephant is on the roll. There is no stopping now. Good Show!!

Dhakshina Moorthy, K.M.