Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Forex Dilemma 10.

Read this.
Re at new 9-yr high of 41.63/$
Agencies / Mumbai April 23, 2007 11:00 Hrs.

Credit Policy: Re zooms to 41.17/$
Press Trust of India / Mumbai April 24, 2007

.... and now.
I just remembered a nursery rhyme,
1 - 2 buckle my shoe .....
9 - 10 a big fat hen.
Just that the big fat hen called the Indian Rupee has started laying golden eggs all of a sudden., or everybody have started valuing the eggs to gold.

now 1 Eur = Re 56.48
1 UK Pound = Re 83.31

Indian Rupee has not seen substantial gains against the Euro or the UK Pound. Even in 2006 the Euro was close to 52 and UKP close to 79.

All the hue and cry that the Indian merchandise exports will collapse is all nonsense. The situation now is that the appreciation is more an after thought of the fall of the USD against Euro and UK Pound. The real appreciation of the Rupee is yet to be witnessed. USD should be traded at 38 rupees to reach the last year levels of Euro and pound.

Indian exporters should demand better prices for what they export. Not meekly succumb to the orders at ridiculous prices. If they quote china, then let them go to china for procurement. It is high time Indian exporters moved up the value chain and stop exporting raw materials and low value merchandise. Indian exporters are not exporting the surplus capacity but exporting the very best. For example cashew nuts of the best quality and size are not available in the domestic market even for a high price but exported. This should stop. the rise in the rupee will see a natural consequence of diversion of this sale to the domestic market. There is huge demand for many merchandise in the domestic market that are being exported. When the exporters are exporting with meager margins, the rise of the rupee is a good effect on the low margin exports and only high margin , high value exports would continue despite the rise in the value of the rupee. There will be a correction in the salary levels of the info-tech industry consequently effecting in the other industries.

Dhakshina Moorthy, K.M.



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