Monday, March 12, 2007

Forex Dilemma 6

Read this.

Forex reserves up at $194.634 Billion on March 2
REUTERS[ FRIDAY, MARCH 09, 2007 06:00:00 PM]

MUMBAI: The country’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a record $194.634 billion on March 2, from $193.124 billion a week earlier, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its weekly statistical supplement on Friday.

Analysts attributed part of the increase in the reserves to the central bank's aggressive dollar purchases to protect the rupee's export-competitiveness against other currencies.

The central bank said foreign currency assets expressed in U.S. dollar terms included the effect of appreciation or depreciation of other currencies held in its reserves such as the Euro, pound sterling and yen.

The foreign exchange reserves include India's Reserve Tranche Position in the International Monetary Fund, the central bank said.

...and this.

Buy Indian currency, says HSBC
REUTERS[ MONDAY, MARCH 12, 2007 02:10:21 PM]

MUMBAI: HSBC has recommended to buy the Indian rupee as a jump in foreign direct investment (FDI) in recent months has calmed concerns of funding the country's widening trade deficit. The rupee could rise to 43 per dollar by the end of 2007, a level it hasn't tested since late-July 2005, the London-based investment bank said in a note to clients on Friday.

The rupee was trading at 44.24 to the dollar on Monday.

HSBC said India's central bank, which often intervenes to rein in the rupee to ensure exports are not hurt by a stronger currency, may be forced to let the unit gain.

"It is difficult for a central bank to resist currency strength and also face an overwhelming case for tighter monetary policy," it said.

HSBC also said the rupee was not vulnerable to equity outflows as a recent stock market correction showed.

"Indian rupee is not as highly leveraged to the equity market as the consensus believes. During the recent period, the rupee depreciated by just 1.1 per cent and emerged again as one of the best performing emerging market currencies," it said.

...and now ,

What is Dr Manmohan Singh and team are going to do with USD 195 Billion forex reserve when even USD 40 Billion should be more than sufficient for the next 12 months.

Dhakshina Moorthy, K.M.

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