Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Forex Dilemma 7

Read this.

Rupee at multi-year high.
PTI[ WEDNESDAY, MARCH 28, 2007 11:40:19 AM]

MUMBAI: The rupee continued to surge against the US currency and touched a multi-year high of 43.1525/1600 a dollar in late morning deals following sustained dollar sales by banks coupled with good capital inflows.

The rupee's surge also was accentuated by the absence of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which is expected to check the local currency's rally, a Forex dealer commented.

The central bank is extremely cautious and according to analysts, is wary of making dollar purchases aggressively in the current situation as it could have negative impact on money supply and inflation -- currently at high levels.

Traders feel the rupee is close to touching 43 levels as the cash crunch is likely to remain for some time.

...and now

At last the laws of nature is taking over. Forex reserves have crossed USD 190 Billion. It is like a pressure cooker releasing its safety valve on its own. RBI cannot always intervene. It need not, at least with the present reserve levels. Rs 40 for 1 USD on 1st June 2007 will not surprise me.

Dhakshina Moorthy, K.M.

No comments: